Oklahoma Football: Game-by-game win probabilities updated by ESPN – Sooners Wire

  • October 11, 2022

Perhaps it’s time to reset expectations for the Oklahoma Sooners. After coming out of the gate strong against UTEP, Kent State, and Nebraska, the Oklahoma Sooners have fallen flat in their first three games of conference play.
At 3-3 on the season and left without answers, Oklahoma will welcome a tough Kansas Jayhawks team to Norman this Saturday at 11 a.m. Though Oklahoma is the favorite heading into this game, they’ve got work to do to get back on track with a difficult set of games still remaining on the schedule.
The Sooners still have to play Baylor and Oklahoma State at home in addition to their matchup with Kansas. They’ve got road trips to Ames, Morgantown, and Lubbock that loom large as well.
With three straight losses to open Big 12 play, things are looking bleak. Taking a look at the updated ESPN Matchup Predictor, it doesn’t look like things are going to get much better for the Oklahoma Sooners. But just as quickly as things deteriorated, the Oklahoma Sooners could find a way to get back on the right side of these games.
Let’s see how the matchup predictor views the remainder of the Oklahoma Sooners’ season.
Oct 8, 2022; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jason Bean (17) runs the ball past TCU Horned Frogs defensive lineman George Ellis III (93) during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 69.1% (Down from 87.9%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 79-29-6
Projected running record: 4-3
OU head coach Brent Venables walks off the field Saturday after a 49-0 loss to Texas in the Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Bryan Terry, The Oklahoman
The Oklahoma Sooners need a reset in a bad way. After traveling to Fort Worth and then Dallas, playing at home against Kansas and with a bye week following provides a good opportunity for the Sooners to reset their season.
Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Hunter Dekkers (12) looks for throw the ball againsr Kansas State during the fourth quarter at Jack Trice Stadium Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in Ames, Iowa. Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK
Predicted Winner: Iowa State
Sooners Win Probability: 40.8% (Down from 62.9%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 78-7-2
Projected running record: 4-4
Sep 17, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda talks to his players during a timeout against the Texas State Bobcats during the first half at McLane Stadium. Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Baylor
Sooners Win Probability: 42.1% (Down from 62.4%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 28-4
Projected running record: 4-5
Sep 17, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers defensive lineman Dante Stills (55) leads the team onto the field prior to their game against the Towson Tigers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: West Virginia
Sooners Win Probability: 44.2% (Down from 68%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 11-2
Projected running record: 4-6
Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders (3) runs for a touchdown in the first quarter during a college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022. Nate Fish, The Oklahoman
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma State
Sooners Win Probability: 41.6% (Down from 71.6%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 90-19-7
Projected running record: 4-7
Oct 8, 2022; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton (2) throws the ball against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the first quarter at Boone Pickens Stadium. Nathan J Fish/The Oklahoman – USA TODAY NETWORK
Predicted Winner: Texas Tech
Sooners Win Probability: 47% (Down from 72.7%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 23-6
Projected running record: 4-8
Oct 8, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA: Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) is tackled by Oklahoma defensive back Key Lawrence (12) while running the ball during the annual Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman- USA TODAY NETWORK
A projected finish of 4-8 would be quite shocking after the way the Sooners started the season. But with the depth of the Big 12 and the way Oklahoma is playing, it feels like a real possibility. They can turn it around, though; that starts this week when they host Kansas.
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Big 12 action features the Oklahoma Sooners (3-3) squaring off against the No. 19 Kansas Jayhawks (5-1) on Saturday, October 15, 2022 at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The Sooners are notable favorites in this one, with the spread posted at 7.5 points. The over/under is 64.5 in the outing.The Sooners’ last contest was against the Texas Longhorns, and they lost by a score of 49-0.Sooners quarterback Davis Beville went 6-for-12 for 38 yards, with no TDs and one INT, versus Texas.The Jayhawks’ most recent contest was against the TCU Horned Frogs, and they lost by a score of…
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